WP 2023.02 Go where the wind does not blow: Climate damages heterogeneity and future migrations
Lesly Cassin – Aurélie Méjean – Stéphane Zuber
In the context of climate change, migration can be considered as an adaptation strategy to reduce populations’ exposure to climate damages. Those damages are very heterogeneous across regions. In this paper, we study migration induced by climate change damages. To do so, we estimate the socio-economic determinants of migration, focusing on economic damages. We then model endogenous migration in an integrated assessment model based on those estimates. We highlight the importance of the heterogeneity of the damages distribution to explain migration fows due to climate change. We find that high levels of climate damages globally do not necessarily induce large climate migration. Rather, large differences in exposure between regions may lead to substantial migration.
WP 2023.01 Internal Migration and Energy Poverty
Johanna Choumert-Nkolo – Leonard le Roux
This paper presents a first analysis of the relationship between rural-urban migration and energy poverty in South Africa, and to the authors’ knowledge in Africa, using a nationally representative panel dataset. Using a dynamic difference in differences approach, energy poverty changes for both migrants and non-migrants are tracked over a ten-year period from 2008 to 2017. On average, moving to urban areas results in reductions in energy poverty for migrants themselves, with especially dramatic reductions in the use of traditional cooking fuels. Roughly one in five new urban arrivals move into informal shack dwellings where initial gains in energy access are negligible, but even for these migrants, the gains from migration grow over time. Effects on households, differences between male and female migrants, and other amenitities are also explored.